Latin America Advisor | Who Will Mexico's Ruling Party Tap as Its Candidate?

Q: Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum resigned on June 16 to launch her campaign for Mexico’s presidency. The mayor is a member of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Morena party, which has said it would select its nominee for president by early September. On June 12, Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard also resigned to seek the nomination. How is Mexico’s presidential race shaping up, and who has the best chance of becoming Morena’s candidate? Who will represent the opposition, and what issues will drive the election?

A: Carin Zissis, editor-in-chief of AS/COA Online: 

López Obrador and his party, Morena, insist there will be no dedazo, a long-held Mexican practice whereby the president picks his successor. Still, Sheinbaum is seen as AMLO’s favorite, and observers use her catchphrase, #EsClaudia (‘It’s Claudia’), like a fait accompli. Then again, Ebrard gained momentum when Morena’s coalition backed his proposal that rivals exit their posts this month to compete for the party’s candidacy. With a five-poll process to pick the candidate and no public debates, Morena hopes to project a unified front, even if rumors of infighting abound and this unprecedented selection process faces tests. And while AMLO, buoyed by popular social programs, continues to command high approval, disapproval runs higher for his government’s handling of top issues such as crime, corruption and the economy. The problem for the opposition is that most voters don’t think it can do any better. Morena has much higher favorable ratings than any of the three parties in the opposition Va Por México alliance, which, beset with its own infighting woes, will announce its selection process by the end of June. Head-to-head polling gives both Sheinbaum and Ebrard double-digit leads over the alliance’s top names. Of course, the election is a year away. Va Por México could get a boost with the backing of Mexico’s third political force, Movimiento Ciudadano (though its party leader compared the alliance to a sinking ship). The opposition could unveil a surprising name. But with AMLO, the Teflon president, at the helm, the Morena candidate announced in September has a strong chance of winning nine months later.

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Latin America Advisor | How Effectively Is Mexico Fighting the Covid Pandemic?

Q: Mexico’s Health Ministry acknowledged last month in a report that the country’s true number of coronavirus-related deaths may exceed 321,000, a nearly 60 percent increase from the official tally. The figure includes 120,000 “excess” deaths that were previously unaccounted for due to reasons including a lack of testing and unreported cases of Covid-19. What is the real state of the pandemic in Mexico, and what major limitations in the country’s public health system has it exposed? How well has Mexico’s government planned for vaccination rollout? With legislative and local elections scheduled for June, will the new statistics have political consequences? 

A: Carin Zissis, editor-in-chief of AS/COA online:

On the Saturday before the start of Semana Santa, Mexico’s Health Ministry quietly revealed devastating excess death figures, even as the confirmed tally already meant the second-highest per capita death toll in Latin America after Peru. The scale of tragedy is hard to pin down, given a public health strategy with one of the lowest coronavirus test rates in the world. The lack of testing left thousands of Mexicans watching loved ones die at home, unable to confirm Covid-19 as the cause. Communication has been another hurdle. While the Health Ministry urges people to stay home or mask up, the message from the top isn’t always clear. The country’s senior coronavirus official went on a beach vacation when contagion was at its worst. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has rarely worn a mask in public, and catching the virus didn’t convince him to start. When it comes to the vaccine rollout, news is also mixed. On Christmas Eve, Mexico was among the first Latin American countries to administer the vaccine and has secured contracts for enough doses to cover 129 percent of its population. Given the government’s schedule to complete vaccinations by March 2022, it should administer 500,000 doses daily, but it is falling far short of that mark. As of Easter Sunday, only 1 percent of Mexicans had been fully vaccinated. June midterms serve as another vaccination deadline. A March poll shows AMLO’s approval runs higher among the vaccinated. With legislative control in play and, given AMLO’s figurehead role, his party would benefit if his government can pick up the vaccination pace.

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Latin America Advisor | Can Meade Keep Mexico's Presidency in the PRI's Hands?

Q: Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto on Nov. 27 backed his finance secretary, José Antonio Meade, to be the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party’s candidate in the presidential election to be held next July. Why did Peña Nieto choose Meade, and will Meade’s close affiliation with the relatively unpopular lame-duck president hinder his candidacy? Does Meade have the support of the PRI at large? What will it take for Meade, often described as a U.S.-educated technocrat, to garner enough popular support to become Mexico’s next president?

A: Carin Zissis, editor-in-chief of AS/COA Online at the Americas Society and Council of the Americas:

“José Antonio Meade, a lesser-known candidate who’s never run for office, is up against leftist former Mexico City Mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a familiar face making his third go at the presidency and who leads polls in part thanks to voter dissatisfaction with the political status quo. So it seems like Meade, who has PhD from Yale and polls well with elites, could struggle to win popular support in time for election day. But it would be a big mistake to count him out. For starters, Meade’s ‘unknown’ status can be overcome, particularly given that political advertising is crucial to media outlets’ bottom lines in Mexico. Since Meade revealed plans to run, he has gotten nonstop coverage, proving the PRI machinery is gearing up for battle. Second, President Enrique Peña Nieto’s administration hopes that what makes Meade different will also make him the victor. The PRI is tainted by corruption, but Meade remains untarnished. He’s held top cabinet posts, ranging from foreign relations to finance, under Peña Nieto, but also during the presidency of Felipe Calderón of the National Action Party, meaning he can siphon votes from the conservative PAN. In fact, Meade isn’t a PRI member; the party opened the door to his candidacy in August by changing its rules to allow non-priistas to run. Finally, Mexico has no runoff vote, and there could be more candidates this time around, given the possibility of some high-profile independents. Meade, or whoever wins, might do so with a third of the votes—or less. And the PRI is, at least publicly, projecting unity while other parties fall victim to infighting. There’s a long way to go between now and July 1, and the PRI is a formidable political force in Mexican politics, regardless of Peña Nieto’s approval rating.”

Read the full Q&A here.